Anonymous sceptical view of history.
History is frequently to be explained by the ordinary errors and inadequacies of people, especially powerful people, rather than by any grand theory.
The theory expresses a common skepticism towards both intellectual and personal pretension, and the view that behind most great men there is a far more mundane mixture of idleness and incompetence.
A developed application of this theory towards warfare suggests that there are three kinds of military events: cock-ups, routs, and national disasters.
Also see: contingency theory
Source:
Norman F Dixon, On the Psychology of Military Incompetence (London, 1976)
Cock-Up Theory describes the presumption made by mainstream polticial news reporters that events are the result of an “arbitrary and contingent muddle” rather than of manipulation by colluding elites. The results is a free pass given to elites and a failure to investigate elite responsibility.